January 2025: Another Strong Year for Stocks

January 8, 2025

Dear Valued Investor,

Stocks had another very strong year in 2024. In fact, 2024 marked the first time the S&P 500 has enjoyed a +20% gain in back-to-back years since 1997–98. Last year didn’t start out so optimistically though. The list of worries among stock-market bears included high valuations, narrow leadership by the largest technology stocks, rising long-term interest rates, election uncertainty, deficit spending, and more. Stocks rallied through all of that without so much as one 10% correction.

The stock market’s surprising ascent in 2024 offers some important lessons for investors:

• The herd is often wrong. Wall Street underestimated the S&P 500’s price at year-end by about 15%. Remember, positive years for stocks are about three times more likely than declines. 

• The trend is your friend. Employing technical analysis can help investors avoid mistakes. In an upward-trending market, don’t take a detour because of some bearish narrative the market may not care about. 

• Bull markets typically run for a while. They last more than five years on average and rarely end when the U.S. economy is growing, especially when the Federal Reserve (Fed) is cutting interest rates. The current bull market is about 27 months old.

• Earnings drive stock prices. The fundamental value of stocks comes from a company’s earnings. S&P 500 companies will likely grow earnings 10% in aggregate in 2024 and may do so again in 2025.

• Focus on the long term. Don’t get scared out of the market by the headlines if you’re a long-term investor. “Time in the market” beats “timing the market.” Waiting it out through down periods is the best approach for nearly all investors. Since 1980, the annualized return for the S&P 500 is 12.1%.

The U.S. economy also offered investors another lesson — that betting against the U.S. consumer is often a losing bet — especially an employed U.S. consumer. Mortgage refinances during the pandemic and the wealth created by higher stock prices added fuel for more spending, particularly from upper-income consumers.

These are good lessons to tuck away as 2025 gets underway. The coming year may not bring quite as much joy to your portfolio as 2024, given how much good news is being priced into the stock market currently. Inflation pressures may re-emerge, and geopolitical threats could upend rallies. But, with steady economic growth, a healthy job market, growing corporate profits, and continued investment in artificial intelligence, the ingredients for another profitable year are in place. 

As always, please reach out to me with questions.

Warmest Regards,

Shane Terry, ChFC®

President & LPL Registered Principal

Terry Wealth Management

2710 Loker Avenue West

Suite 220

Carlsbad, CA 92010

Phone/Fax  760.858.2080

CA Insurance Lic. #0K26885

shane@terrywealth.com

www.terrywealth.com

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. 

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of January 7, 2025.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities. 

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. 

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

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